Thursday, January 6, 2011

The last day of the last one in 2010 to force the medium-term forecast

 Stock red! 2010 is my last day, the good news is the stock market has finally stabilized. The bad news is that following this review, just to see, A Road, A Road that is in addition to their own forecasts and recommended articles other than the last three days Since the most important, most valuable articles. please take a look at mm
Wei Saite Finance provides (for reference, at your own risk)

expectations are too high not to rally national securities < br> During the year, the second rate hike, the central bank raised the first time in nearly three years and re-lending, rediscount rates, continue to release to the market contraction of liquidity released
signal .12 30, the overnight call rate rose to 5.0996 %, seven days rose to 6.2853%.
sharp rise in lending interest rates that periodically the shortage of funds, if the overnight lending rate down to 2% can not be near big
strong rebound in the home probably expect to be disappointed. also That is, after New Year's Day, if not rapidly
overnight call rate down, point of finishing 2750 points m2940 platform below will be effective. If this, the Shanghai index to adjust the next target will be near 2
550.
Recently, the European debt crisis spread to the traditional trend of economic power in Europe. It is said that in November the Spanish capital cost of debt financing
up 18%, Spain is Europe's fifth-largest economic entity, and if there Spain Ireland, Greece
wax debt crisis, will have a tremendous negative impact on the euro area. In addition, the French 10-year Treasury credit default swaps (
CDS) prices have risen twice the debt crisis in Europe has spread to France trend. As the British economic recovery is slow, tight fiscal policy and inflation expectations
continued to increase, the British economy is also facing deteriorating. Although the United States, European stocks
trend is good, but be careful debt crisis spread in Europe on global stock markets (including the A-share market) the negative impact.
for A-share market in 2011, the author promising strategy for emerging industries, big spending. but to see brokerage firms, public offering based
gold, private equity funds and other institutions consistent promising strategy for new industries and large consumption, I think it's
two investors would be difficult for stocks in 2011 have outstanding performance. After all, the stock market is the small number of people making money, when a plate is promising everyone
No matter how the texture of the plate, in most cases is immune to a good performance. For financial stocks, real estate stocks, optimistic that they rarely
an institution's performance in 2011. Historical experience shows that: sometimes abandoned by everybody at the same time is a happy thing
, because at this time is often worst was 2011, the financial, real estate sector will have good performance.
after New Year's Day, the current tight financial situation is difficult to have a big difference. First of all, the recent adjustment , although a number of positions reduced
raised funds, but the overall position on the fund is still at historic highs. Historical experience shows that funds are not reduced to a certain degree of bit positions
, A shares will not be rising trend; followed 2010, 153 new funds, issuing a record number of
; but after calculations, the total funds raised funds management, compared with the end of 2009, and no significant increase in
plus; again, the first quarter of each year are the dividends of the Fund's focus, in order to prepare the cash dividend, the Fund needs to decrease
passive holding cash, which was not well-off A-share fund to a certain surface pressure.
Last week, the small board index, the GEM Index Zhou K line engulfing, head shape has emerged, showing the two
index has entered the mid-term adjustments. from the disk, a few small and medium investors in the stock in the shipping very determined.
's worth noting is the mobility of small stocks is not good, once the trend into the adjustment of the apparent lack of small illiquid stocks.
sustained decline must shake the confidence of the holder, the weak the lack of resistance
stock rebound momentum. We expect that this round of the medium-term adjustment of small stocks have the largest number of stocks fell more than 50%, after the end of this round of adjustment
, small stock trend appears deeply divided and can be stocks will not exceed a new record high 30%.
As more and more small plates, the GEM stock into medium-term adjustment, Shanghai and Shenzhen motherboard related or similar
small stock will be subject to drag. At present we have not reached a consensus on the blue chips, once the small stock fell sharply
, A-share market will probably focus to the next level. recent trajectory A shares may be adjusted following two circumstances
I.1, the bank underestimated the value of the shares represented by the blue chips, rose slightly to hedge small stocks continued to fall, like the Shanghai Composite
point m2940 can be maintained at 2750 points finish; 2, do not underestimate the value of the blue chips down or slightly down, The small stocks continued to fall in
, finishing 2750 points m2940 points below the platform is valid. We prefer the latter.

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